appointments 
Wayne Robinson asses the likely impact on the printing industry of Prime Minister John Howard declaring war on Iraq The massed ranks of anti-war protests around the country last month were no doubt boosted by big numbers of the nationís printers, or at least they ought to have been. Quite apart from the concern about the population of Iraq, already battered by 30 years of dictatorship, now facing the deadly bombs of the ìcoalition of the willingî, with the shattering human cost that will entail, a war in Iraq will further seriously affect the already beleaguered Australian printing industry.
The countryís two top economists have estimated that if Australia goes to war against Iraq the cost to the country will be between a whopping $30 billion and an astronomic $120 billion. The $30 billion figure is for a short war, the latter figure if it drags on. This is a substantial sum to take out of the domestic economy, and a significant part of that sum would have been destined for printers, who have already been feeling the squeeze for the past two years. Printing is inextricably linked to the broader economy, and when the economy suffers so do printers. Already merely the talk of war is impacting the print industry. To give only one example Qantas has just revised its 2003 profit figure downwards based on the prospect of war. It is starting by enforcing leave taking, so saving the equivalent of 1500 staff, with the promise that almost a tenth, 3500 will lose their jobs if war occurs. It is chopping routes, after suffering a sharp decline in forward bookings, particularly from two key markets, the UK and Japan. Contracting its business accordingly will mean less tickets are printed, fewer in-flight magazines, fewer menu cards, fewer newsletters and a declining number of other printed communication. It will force Qantas to rein in its sponsorship programme, which itself generates a host of print from the sponsored events. Those 3500 staff laid off will see a significant decline in their disposable income, which will see their print consumption reduce, for instance they will be buying less magazines and fewer pre-packaged meals. Mirror this scenario across thousands of companies across the land, and it becomes evident that even the threat of war, let alone the event itself, will seriously impact print.

Of course one manís ceiling is another manís floor, and there will be a few winners if Mr Howard takes the country to war. PMP has already had the boost of printing the five million run anti-terrorism alert that went to every household in the country. No doubt the circulation of the gun lobbyís magazines will increase, as will the need for instruction manuals for gas masks if the Australian public follows the Americans into panic mode.

However these gains are small beer compared with the potential losses. Another major obstacle to growth in print volumes is not what the Australian print industry needs right now. A substantial amount of money has already been lost this year through the drought, with exports hit hard, and the corresponding decline in foreign currency. In another barometer of the health of the industry the big press manufacturers, Heidelberg and MAN Roland, are already bracing themselves for another year of lower orders, after having suffered major reversals last year. The print industry clearly needs help not hinderance, and for the government to be picking a war with a country on the other side of the world, from which it, nor anyone else as far as it has been determined, receives no threat, and indeed one which is the biggest buyer of Australian wheat, and so plunging the domestic economy into uncertainty and likely decline, beggars belief, and is testimony only to the loss of connection between the leading politicians and the populace.

ìWar, what is it good for? Absolutely nothing.î The famous opening line from the Edwin Starrís classic sixties hit ought to be echoed by every printer in the country, both from a humanitarian viewpoint, and closer to home, from a business perspective. Of course the suffering of a decreasing income does not compare with the loss of human life, or ìcollateral damageî as the US-compliant international news media will put it, but it still does have an impact, and needs to be acted upon.

The government will take no heed of silence, nor of a few thousand young activists. But despite its public pronouncements to the contrary it most certainly listens to the voice of tens or hundreds of thousands of mums and dads, RSL stalwarts and business people who get out on the streets. These days business has to be active and be seen to be heard.